Population Explosion in Idaho

Are we paying attention?

May 18, 2021

ProPublica updated this report from September, 2020. I missed it the first time published, and now already seeing population shifts in the Mountain West, specifically, the Wood River Valley in South-Central Idaho. -dayle

https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-change-will-force-a-new-american-migration?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

This article, the second in a series on global migration caused by climate change, is a result of a partnership between ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, with support from the Pulitzer Center.

Senior citizens at a cooling center in Phoenix [summer 2020] during Arizona’s record-setting heat wave. (Meridith Kohut for The New York Times)

THE GREAT CLIMATE MIGRATION

Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration

“Wildfires rage in the West. Hurricanes batter the East. Droughts and floods wreak damage throughout the nation. Life has become increasingly untenable in the hardest-hit areas, but if the people there move, where will everyone go?

The millions of people moving north will mostly head to the cities of the Northeast and Northwest, which will see their populations grow by roughly 10%, according to one model. Once-chilly places like Minnesota and Michigan and Vermont will become more temperate, verdant and inviting. Vast regions will prosper; just as Hsiang’s research forecast that Southern counties could see a tenth of their economy dry up, he projects that others as far as North Dakota and Minnesota will enjoy a corresponding expansion. Cities like Detroit; Rochester, New York; Buffalo and Milwaukee will see a renaissance, with their excess capacity in infrastructure, water supplies and highways once again put to good use. One day, it’s possible that a high-speed rail line could race across the Dakotas, through Idaho’s up-and-coming wine country and the country’s new breadbasket along the Canadian border, to the megalopolis of Seattle, which by then has nearly merged with Vancouver to its north.”

Sun Valley’s Population Explodes During Pandemic Year

Eye on Sun Valley

STORY AND PHOTO BY KAREN BOSSICK

Blaine County gained as many new residents this past year as the previous seven combined, according to data collected by Sun Valley Economic Development.

Population increased by seven percent, compared with an average 1 percent growth over the past 20 years, SVED’s David Patrie told those attending Visit Sun Valley’s spring meeting on Wednesday.

Patrie says the picture is incomplete and that SVED is trying to sort it all out. But here’s what we do know:

  • There are at least 1,300 new residents in Blaine county that are voting and driving here. Assuming 20 percent of those has a child, that’s at least 1,500 new residents.
  • The DMV issued 923 new licenses to people from 48 states this past year. That does not include people who moved here from Boise and other parts of the state. Getting a driver’s license means these people are probably planning to stay, Patrie said.
  • New driver’s licenses were issued to 326 Californians, 126 Washingtonians, 61 Oregonians, 49 Coloradans, 31 Utahns and 25 Nevadans, among others. The only two states not represented were North Dakota and Rhode Island.Seventy percent of them were 61 and older.
  • There was 3,770 new voter registrations, compared with 1,640 in 2016—the last presidential election. That’s a 130 percent increase, Patrie said.

  • The traffic count north of Ketchum increased 30 percent during the past year, according to an Idaho Transportation Department traffic counter. That indicates that many of the newer residents are concentrated in the North Valley, Patrie said.In contrast, the traffic count was down 4 percent north of Hailey, and Lincoln County showed a 2 percent reduction in traffic as more people worked from home and stayed home during the shelter-in-place order.
  • General aviation remained strong despite the cancellation of Allen & Company in July 2020. It was up 14 percent, indicating that a lot of those who moved here during the past year or used Sun valley as a base during pandemic lockdowns elsewhere were affluent.

REAL ESTATE

Real estate is off the charts with 800 new purchases during the past year and the frenzy appears to be sustainable. But it’s becoming harder for low- and middle-income workers to find housing as the inventory of housing below $450,000 has decreased, Patrie said.

The sale of houses costing $3 million and more increased 247 percent; $1-3 million, up 67 percent; $450,000-$1 million, up 40 percent; $275,000 to $450,000, down 3 percent, and $275,000 and under, minus 38 percent.

The number of new homeowner’s exemptions, indicating people are using their new homes as primary residence, was 179. The majority are from Boise or Idaho Falls, followed by former residents of California and Oregon.

There were 29 states represented in the homeowner’s exemption group, which indicates that it’s a geographically diverse group of people coming here.

Vacant land sales are up 112 percent as the inventory for homes has run out.

OCCUPANCY RATE

The short-term rentals occupancy rate was up 37 percent from April 2020 to March 2021. But the number of listings was down 15 percent. That indicates that people who have investment properties or second homes took them off the market as they camped out here themselves.

BUSINESS IS IMPROVING

A lot of businesses, such as outdoor shops, saw business boom during the pandemic year while others struggled. We are starting to see things return to pre-COVID levels, Patrie said.

AIR TRAFFIC RETURNING TO RESORTS

Enplanements were down 68 percent from April to December 2020 with Friedman Memorial Airport all but closed for a couple months. But enplanements were 90 percent of what they were in 2019 from January to March 2021, indicating that recovery is happening.

Nationally, commercial air enplanements are still below 50 percent so resorts are leading the way.

BANNER SEASON FOR SUN VALLEY

Sun Valley Resort had a banner season, thanks to several factors: Not requiring reservations for skiers. The Epic Pass partnership. And being named the No. 1 ski resort in North America by Ski Magazine.

It also had an amiable snowfall cycle and the word got out that Sun Valley had snow, said Scott Fortner, Visit Sun Valley’s director.

Sun Valley took a hit with corporate conventions all but nonexistent. But that’s not bad considering some ski resorts worldwide did not open and many fared far worse than Sun Valley.

Lot collections were up 35 percent November through March versus 2018-19.

Enplanements were down 21 percent during that time but traffic counts were up 52 percent.

Even now, Fortner said, lack of confidence in air travel is pushing people to travel by car. And when you drive 12 to 15 hours you’re probably going to stay longer, he said.

Room nights sold were: Minus 32 percent in November, Minus 20 in December, Minus 11 in January, Minus 7 in February, Minus 5 in March and Minus 21 in April as the area saw more people from Salt Lake City, Boise and Twin Falls.

THE LOOK AHEAD

There’s a lot of pent-up demand after a year of being holed up at home and a lot of air miles need to be redeemed. With entertainment and travel spending drastically reduced, many people are sitting on extra cash they’re ready to spend.

Escaping the city for fresh mountain air at the top of many travelers’ lists. And events, such as the Sun Valley Wellness Festival, are rebounding.

In addition, traveler confidence is up with the reduction in COVID-19 cases and the rise in vaccinations.

Friedman Memorial Airport’s nonstop flight service will kick off the first week of June this year, rather than the third.

THE PROBLEM

Newcomers don’t understand daily norms and some locals are reacting negatively to the  idea of sharing their recreational space.

Lack of home inventory and increased rental prices has pinched living opportunities.

There’s a workforce shortage, especially for those in the service industry.

To address these problems, Visit Sun Valley may revisit its campaign about “What We’re Made Of” coupled with its recent “Mindfulness in the Mountain” campaign.

We want Sun Valley to remain welcoming to our tourists and we want our tourists to help keep the place special and appreciate what Sun Valley has to offer, not try to change it to suit the tastes of wherever they came from, whether fast food chains or Uber gridlock, Visit Sun Valley officials said.

“We’re the stewards of our community and we’re the chefs,” added Patrie. “If we understand our ingredients, we can take something that doesn’t look good on its face and turn it into something sweet.”

https://eyeonsunvalley.com/Mobile/Mobile_Story_Reader?StoryId=8355

Idaho Mountain Express

by Greg Foley

Sun Valley tourism is rebounding, marketing group says

Report: Some 1,500 people have moved to valley during pandemic

The Sun Valley area is undergoing an unexpected surge in growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic, changing life for locals and—to some degree—how Idaho’s premier tourist destination is marketed to potential visitors.

That was the overarching message of a semi-annual meeting conducted by the Visit Sun Valley marketing and business organization livestreamed to viewers Wednesday from The Community Library in Ketchum.

Many people coming to the area are “COVID evacuees,” remote workers, adventurers and people who own second—or third—homes in the area, he said. Amid the pandemic, Visit Sun Valley has had to consider that visitors are booking trips later, staying longer and have been looking for things to do, as many events were canceled, he said. Group visits were down, hotel bookings were down and there have been fewer “traditional” vacations of families flying in for a week-long visit. Instead, more people have been driving to the Wood River Valley from places such as Salt Lake City, Boise and Twin Falls, he said.

“It just hasn’t been the same as it was historically,” Fortner said.

The organization sees a “pent-up demand” for travel, the return of many popular events, increased confidence in the safety of travel, a strong interest in mountain communities and strong commercial air service to the region all as encouraging factors for the tourism sector, Fortner said. In addition, many people are conducting internet searches for Sun Valley, he noted.

As the organization moves into a new phase of its “Mindfulness in the Mountains” marketing campaign, it is encouraging community “stewardship” from visitors—people who are a “better visitor that is enlightened and informed,” the organization’s presentation stated.

In addition, Visit Sun Valley is promoting a wide range of “guided experiences”—including cooking classes, yoga, fly fishing and mountain biking—that educate visitors, get them outdoors and allow them to gain a “deeper sense of what Sun Valley is all about,” said Marketing Director Ray Gadd. Visit Sun Valley is also promoting the return of signature events, including the Sun Valley Music Festival, the Sun Valley Writers’ Conference and the Trailing of the Sheep Festival, Gadd said.

During the meeting, David Patrie, outreach director for the Sun Valley Economic Development business organization, presented data from an in-depth analysis of the effects of the pandemic and an influx of new residents into the Wood River Valley over the past year.

“Last March, we never would have predicted where we are today,” Patrie said.

New voter registrations in Blaine County increased from 1,640 in 2016 to 3,770 in 2020, Patrie said, with most registrants in the 22-35 age range.

“Yeah, it’s a lot,” he said, “and it feels like a lot.”

https://www.mtexpress.com/news/blaine_county/sun-valley-tourism-is-rebounding-marketing-group-says/article_badf60ea-b441-11eb-9ecd-c782dfbbe8aa.html

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